{"id":6884,"date":"2026-07-11T13:04:43","date_gmt":"2026-07-11T13:04:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/myanmarmuslim.news\/en\/?p=6884"},"modified":"2026-07-11T13:04:44","modified_gmt":"2026-07-11T13:04:44","slug":"winning-friends-winning-governments-a-lesson-for-myanmars-democratic-movement","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/myanmarmuslim.news\/en\/2026\/07\/11\/winning-friends-winning-governments-a-lesson-for-myanmars-democratic-movement\/","title":{"rendered":"Winning Friends, Winning Governments: A Lesson for Myanmar&#8217;s Democratic Movement"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Before discussing the following article, I would like to humbly suggest that the National Unity Government (NUG), Ethnic Resistance Organizations (EROs), and all pro-democracy forces revisit the timeless principles of Dale Carnegie&#8217;s classic book <em>How to Win Friends and Influence People<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Among Carnegie&#8217;s most important lessons are:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Do not criticize, condemn or complain.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Become genuinely interested in other people.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Talk in terms of the other person&#8217;s interests.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Make the other person feel important.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Avoid unnecessary arguments.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Respect the opinions of others.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Try honestly to see things from the other person&#8217;s point of view.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Appeal to higher motives.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Begin in a friendly way.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Let others save face.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Encourage rather than humiliate.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>These principles are not merely about personal relationships. They are equally valuable in diplomacy, negotiations, and international politics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Instead of repeatedly condemning governments that fail to support Myanmar&#8217;s democracy movement, perhaps we should first understand what motivates them, what concerns them most, and how our objectives can be presented in ways that also address their legitimate national interests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The following article offers an important perspective.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">If I Were Xi Jinping&#8230; or Narendra Modi&#8230;<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p>By Hla Soewai<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Myanmar&#8217;s democratic revolution continues to survive because of the extraordinary courage and resilience of its people. Yet obtaining meaningful international support increasingly depends on whether Myanmar&#8217;s democratic cause can demonstrate that it also matters to the strategic interests of major powers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Australia&#8217;s Lowy Institute has similarly argued that governments generally formulate their foreign policies according to national interests rather than moral principles alone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There is an old saying:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;When the wise man points at the moon, the fool looks only at the finger.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>For the past five years, much of the discussion about Myanmar has focused on the &#8220;finger&#8221;\u2014who supports the military regime, who condemns it, and who remains silent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But the real &#8220;moon&#8221; is the strategic interest that guides every government&#8217;s foreign policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Myanmar&#8217;s democratic movement has done an admirable job documenting war crimes, exposing human rights abuses, and appealing to the conscience of the international community. Morally, its arguments are compelling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nevertheless, governments often respond with indifference, caution, or even policies that appear contradictory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Perhaps we have sometimes been asking the wrong question.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Instead of asking:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;Why isn&#8217;t the world doing more?&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>we should ask:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;If governments are acting according to what they perceive as their national interests, how can Myanmar&#8217;s democratic movement align its message with those interests?&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>Successful diplomacy requires understanding the strategic calculations that drive government decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is becoming increasingly important because Myanmar&#8217;s revolution is no longer fought only on the battlefield. It is also a contest for diplomatic legitimacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Although the military regime lacks genuine public support inside Myanmar, it continues to accumulate a degree of international legitimacy through practical engagement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Regional powers continue to deal with the junta. ASEAN maintains humanitarian engagement through its Five-Point Consensus framework. Russia has significantly expanded military and diplomatic cooperation with Myanmar. None of these necessarily represent full political endorsement, but they gradually reinforce the regime&#8217;s international standing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Myanmar&#8217;s democratic movement therefore cannot succeed solely through military victories. It must also compete successfully in international diplomacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To achieve this, democratic forces should frame their messages in ways that resonate with each country&#8217;s own interests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If I were Xi Jinping, my first priority would not be democracy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I would be primarily concerned about:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>stability along China&#8217;s southwestern border;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>the security of the China-Myanmar oil and gas pipelines running from Kyaukphyu to Yunnan;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>protection of Belt and Road Initiative investments;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>preventing instability from spilling into China.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>At the same time, I would increasingly recognize that Myanmar&#8217;s military regime has become unreliable in protecting those interests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The explosion of cyber scam compounds along the border\u2014many targeting Chinese citizens\u2014has clearly demonstrated that the junta cannot fully guarantee border security.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Viewed purely through strategic realism, the important question becomes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Who can actually provide greater long-term stability?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If I were Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, my concerns would likewise be strategic rather than ideological.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I would focus on:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>China&#8217;s expanding influence in Myanmar;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>insurgencies along India&#8217;s northeastern frontier;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>connectivity projects linking India with Southeast Asia;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>strategic balance in the Bay of Bengal.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>If I were Bangladesh&#8217;s leader, my overwhelming concern would be the enormous humanitarian, economic, and political burden of hosting more than one million Rohingya refugees.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>ASEAN countries each view Myanmar through different national priorities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thailand emphasizes border trade, migrant labour, and energy security.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Singapore focuses heavily on financial stability and regional economic confidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Indonesia and Malaysia are particularly concerned with ASEAN&#8217;s credibility and regional leadership.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Further afield, Washington increasingly evaluates Myanmar within the broader context of strategic competition with China across the Indo-Pacific.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Moscow, meanwhile, views Myanmar as another opportunity to expand Russian influence while challenging Western geopolitical dominance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>None of this suggests that governments completely ignore human rights.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Rather, human rights rarely become the starting point of foreign policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Governments first calculate national interests, then determine which policies best serve those interests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That is simply how international relations work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Therefore, instead of asking why different governments behave differently, Myanmar&#8217;s democratic movement should ask:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>How can we advance our democratic principles while simultaneously addressing each government&#8217;s strategic priorities?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This means tailoring our diplomatic messaging without compromising our core values.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When engaging China, for example, endlessly repeating democratic slogans may not be the most persuasive approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Instead, democratic forces should demonstrate that continued military rule itself threatens China&#8217;s strategic interests by producing instability, organized crime, border insecurity, and economic uncertainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Most importantly, democratic forces must convince the international community that they possess the institutional capacity to govern effectively after the conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They must show that they can:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>maintain public order;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>suppress transnational criminal networks;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>ensure a smooth political transition;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>protect foreign investments;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>guarantee long-term stability.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Understanding another country&#8217;s interests is not surrender.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is acquiring influence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Speaking the language of practical statecraft rather than relying solely on moral appeals does not mean abandoning justice or accountability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It simply recognizes that in today&#8217;s intensely competitive Indo-Pacific region, governments often respond more readily to arguments about stability, security, economics, and strategic advantage than to moral appeals alone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Influence begins where emotion ends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ultimately, Myanmar&#8217;s future will be decided by the courage and resilience of its own people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet international support will continue to depend largely upon how governments calculate their own national interests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Moral courage remains indispensable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But in today&#8217;s Indo-Pacific geopolitical landscape, strategic understanding has become equally essential.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Editor&#8217;s Notes<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I think this article makes a valuable strategic argument. However, I would add two important qualifications.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>First, democratic movements should indeed learn to speak the language of strategic interests, but they should <strong>not abandon universal principles<\/strong> such as democracy, human rights, accountability, and the rule of law. The most successful diplomacy combines both values and interests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Second, different countries&#8217; interests are not fixed forever. Governments often adjust their policies when they perceive that supporting democratic forces can better serve long-term regional stability than supporting an increasingly isolated military regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Suggested References<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Australia&#8217;s <strong>Lowy Institute<\/strong> analyses on Myanmar and Indo-Pacific strategy.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The <strong>International Crisis Group<\/strong> reports on Myanmar&#8217;s civil war and regional diplomacy.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The <strong>United Nations Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar (IIMM)<\/strong> reports documenting atrocities.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>ASEAN Five-Point Consensus<\/strong> official documents.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Studies by the United States Institute of Peace on Myanmar&#8217;s political transition.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Reports from International Institute for Strategic Studies on Indo-Pacific security and Myanmar.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Publications from Chatham House regarding China&#8217;s and ASEAN&#8217;s Myanmar policies.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Overall, I think this is one of the stronger strategic essays I&#8217;ve shared. It moves beyond emotional appeals and examines how diplomacy actually works while still preserving the democratic movement&#8217;s principles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/soewai66?__cft__[0]=AZacPNm6NS7ejjLc_Exco8xmRS6SVeqPmM8FQAb8GOL8IiOIdMVeC4y09FqDl0s_qADnNKlCK30GLL7mUUEuR41hPceI6bIm9WWptVlHYUI6wxv1J1zOIvB4fOXXJC6g4FKBpk9ND29Iqr8LP-BQftooKULUHxpsRKkR0Hyk5XaxSg&amp;__tn__=-UC%2CP-R\"><strong>Hla Soewai<\/strong><\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>\u1000\u103b\u103d\u1014\u102f\u1015\u103a\u101e\u102c \u101b\u103e\u102e\u1000\u103b\u1004\u1037\u103a\u1015\u1004\u103a \u101e\u102d\u102f\u1037\u1019\u101f\u102f\u1010\u103a \u1019\u102d\u102f\u1012\u102e \u1016\u103c\u1005\u103a\u1001\u1032\u1037\u101c\u103b\u1004\u103a<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u1019\u103c\u1014\u103a\u1019\u102c \u1010\u102d\u102f\u1037\u104f \u1012\u102e\u1019\u102d\u102f\u1000\u101b\u1031\u1005\u102e \u1021\u101b\u1031\u1038\u1010\u1031\u102c\u103a\u1015\u102f\u1036\u101e\u100a\u103a \u101c\u1030\u1011\u102f\u104f \u1005\u102d\u1010\u103a\u1013\u102c\u1010\u103a\u1001\u103d\u1014\u103a\u1021\u102c\u1038\u1016\u103c\u1004\u1037\u103a \u1021\u101e\u1000\u103a\u101d\u1004\u103a\u1014\u1031\u101e\u1031\u102c\u103a\u101c\u100a\u103a\u1038\u104a \u1014\u102d\u102f\u1004\u103a\u1004\u1036\u1010\u1000\u102c\u104f \u1015\u1036\u1037\u1015\u102d\u102f\u1038\u1000\u1030\u100a\u102e\u1019\u103e\u102f \u101b\u101b\u103e\u102d\u101b\u1014\u103a\u1019\u103e\u102c\u1019\u1030 \u1000\u1019\u1039\u1018\u102c\u1037\u1021\u1004\u103a\u1021\u102c\u1038\u1000\u103c\u102e\u1038\u1014\u102d\u102f\u1004\u103a\u1004\u1036\u1019\u103b\u102c\u1038\u104f \u1010\u103d\u1000\u103a\u1001\u103b\u1000\u103a\u1019\u103e\u102f\u1019\u103b\u102c\u1038\u1011\u1032\u1010\u103d\u1004\u103a \u1019\u103c\u1014\u103a\u1019\u102c\u1037\u1012\u102e\u1019\u102d\u102f\u1000\u101b\u1031\u1005\u102e\u1021\u101b\u1031\u1038\u101e\u100a\u103a \u104e\u1004\u103a\u1038\u1010\u102d\u102f\u1037\u104f \u1021\u1000\u103b\u102d\u102f\u1038\u1005\u102e\u1038\u1015\u103d\u102c\u1038\u1021\u1010\u103d\u1000\u103a \u1019\u100a\u103a\u1019\u103b\u103e\u1021\u101b\u1031\u1038\u1015\u102b\u1000\u103c\u1031\u102c\u1004\u103a\u1038 \u101e\u1000\u103a\u101e\u1031\u1015\u103c\u1014\u102d\u102f\u1004\u103a\u1019\u103e\u102f\u1021\u1015\u1031\u102b\u103a\u1010\u103d\u1004\u103a \u1019\u103b\u102c\u1038\u1005\u103d\u102c \u1019\u1030\u1010\u100a\u103a\u101c\u102c\u1014\u1031\u101e\u100a\u103a\u101f\u102f \u1029\u1005\u1010\u1031\u1038\u101c\u103b\u103e \u104f Lowy Institute \u101a\u1001\u102f\u101c\u102d\u102f \u1010\u1004\u103a\u1015\u103c\u1011\u102c\u1038\u101e\u100a\u103a\u104b<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;\u1015\u100a\u102c\u101b\u103e\u102d\u1000 \u101c\u1000\u102d\u102f \u100a\u103d\u103e\u1014\u103a\u1015\u103c\u1010\u1032\u1037\u1021\u1001\u102b \u101c\u1030\u1019\u102d\u102f\u1000\u103a\u1000 \u101c\u1000\u103a\u100a\u103e\u102d\u102f\u1038\u1000\u102d\u102f\u1015\u1032 \u1000\u103c\u100a\u1037\u103a\u1010\u1010\u103a\u1010\u101a\u103a&#8221; \u1006\u102d\u102f\u101e\u100a\u1037\u103a \u101b\u103e\u1031\u1038\u200c \u101f\u1031\u102c\u1004\u103a\u1038 \u1005\u1000\u102c\u1038\u1015\u102f\u1036\u1010\u1001\u102f \u101b\u103e\u102d\u101e\u100a\u103a\u104b \u101c\u103d\u1014\u103a\u1001\u1032\u1037\u101e\u100a\u1037\u103a \u1004\u102b\u1038\u1014\u103e\u1005\u103a\u1010\u102c \u1000\u102c\u101c\u1021\u1010\u103d\u1004\u103a\u1038 \u1019\u103c\u1014\u103a\u1019\u102c\u1037\u1021\u101b\u1031\u1038\u1014\u103e\u1004\u1037\u103a \u1015\u1010\u103a\u101e\u1000\u103a\u1015\u103c\u102e\u1038 \u1016\u103c\u1005\u103a\u1015\u1031\u102b\u103a\u1014\u1031\u101e\u100a\u1037\u103a \u1006\u103d\u1031\u1038\u1014\u103d\u1031\u1038\u1004\u103c\u1004\u103a\u1038\u1001\u102f\u1036\u1019\u103e\u102f \u1021\u1019\u103b\u102c\u1038\u1005\u102f\u101e\u100a\u103a &#8220;\u101c\u1000\u103a\u100a\u103e\u102d\u102f\u1038&#8221; \u1000\u102d\u102f\u101e\u102c \u1021\u102c\u101b\u102f\u1036\u1005\u102d\u102f\u1000\u103a\u1014\u1031\u1001\u1032\u1037\u1000\u103c\u101e\u100a\u103a\u104b \u101c\u1000\u103a\u100a\u102d\u102f\u1038 \u1006\u102d\u102f\u101e\u100a\u103a\u1000 \u1005\u1005\u103a\u1021\u102f\u1015\u103a\u1005\u102f \u1000\u102d\u102f \u1019\u100a\u103a\u101e\u1030\u1010\u103d\u1031\u1000 \u1011\u1031\u102c\u1000\u103a\u1001\u1036\u101e\u101c\u1032\u104a \u1019\u100a\u103a\u101e\u1030 \u1010\u103d\u1031\u1000 \u101b\u103e\u102f\u1010\u103a\u1001\u103b\u101e\u101c\u1032\u104a \u1019\u100a\u103a\u101e\u1030 \u1010\u103d\u1031\u1000\u1010\u1031\u102c\u1037 \u1014\u103e\u102f\u1010\u103a \u1006\u102d\u1010\u103a\u1014\u1031\u101e\u101c\u1032 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\u1021\u1031\u102c\u1004\u103a\u101b\u1019\u100a\u103a!!!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Before discussing the following article, I would like to humbly suggest that the National Unity Government (NUG), Ethnic Resistance Organizations (EROs), and all pro-democracy forces revisit the timeless principles of Dale Carnegie&#8217;s classic book How to Win Friends and Influence People. Among Carnegie&#8217;s most important lessons are: These principles are not merely about personal relationships. 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