Deng Xijun, China’s Special Envoy for Asian Affairs, delivered a speech at the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement 10th anniversary ceremony in Naypyidaw on Oct. 15. (Credit: Regime media)
James Shwe
In the tragic theater of Myanmar’s civil war, China has decisively cast itself as the principal international supporter of a criminal military junta.
Through a steady flow of diplomatic cover, financial aid, and military hardware, Beijing provides the essential lifeline to a regime whose staggering crimes against its own people have permanently stripped it of all legitimacy.
For any government that values the welfare of its citizens and the rule of law, the Tatmadaw (Myanmar military) is, and will remain, an untouchable pariah.
It appears China’s leaders have developed a profound historical amnesia. They seem to have forgotten the very foundation of their own revolution—the story of how Mao Zedong’s popular movement, rooted in the will of the people, triumphed over the corrupt, foreign-backed Kuomintang.
The Chinese Communist Party won because it understood that no amount of firepower can overcome a regime that has lost the mandate of its nation.
Yet today, by propping up the Myanmar junta, Beijing is making the same strategic blunder as the KMT’s foreign patrons: it is betting against the people. And history has proven, time and again, that the people eventually win.
The Myanmar junta and its military lost the respect of the population decades ago. Since first seizing power in 1962, it has crushed numerous popular uprisings with sickening brutality.
Over generations, its campaigns of terror have killed tens of thousands and led to the imprisonment and torture of countless more.
Today, its criminality has expanded to enabling transnational scam centers that plague the entire region, even as it bombs schools, hospitals, and places of worship to crush the spirit of resistance.
After so much bloodshed, hypocrisy, and betrayal, the junta can never win back the trust of the nation. It is a failed entity, presiding over a collapsed economy and losing control of vast swaths of the country to a determined and increasingly unified resistance.
This unwavering support is not just a moral failure; it is a profound strategic miscalculation that directly undermines China’s own core interests.
The junta is a source of ever-deepening instability that threatens Beijing’s own borders and risks its significant investments, including the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC).
Continuing to back this failing entity risks being saddled with a chaotic, failed state on its border.
A more sustainable strategy is readily available. China should pivot from its exclusive backing of the junta and open channels of communication with the National Unity Government (NUG), the legitimate representatives of the Myanmar people.
In stark contrast to the junta’s chaos, the NUG and its allied Ethnic Revolutionary Organizations (EROs) are proving their worth on the ground, establishing effective local governance and public services that have earned them the people’s allegiance.
This is not a difficult strategic calculation; it is a clear choice between a dying criminal enterprise and the nascent future vision of the people of Myanmar.
Practical, discreet avenues for this engagement already exist. Beijing can leverage its long-standing relationships with certain EROs on its border to act as intermediaries, providing a layer of plausible deniability.
Additionally, its embassies in third countries can establish formal contact with senior NUG personnel.
Such a move would not only hedge against the junta’s inevitable collapse but also secure a long-term partnership with Myanmar’s future leaders, who have already signaled a willingness to protect foreign investments.
To make this pivot credible and constructive, China could take several diplomatic steps with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Western partners: publicly align with the ASEAN Five-Point Consensus, coordinate diplomatic efforts with ASEAN and U.N. envoys, and visibly pressure the junta by condemning specific atrocities.
China stands at a crossroads. It can continue a failed policy that jeopardizes its own economic future and regional standing, or it can take a pragmatic and historically informed step toward stability.
By engaging with the NUG, China can align itself with the will of the Myanmar people and the inevitable tide of history, rather than being dragged down with a criminal enterprise destined for collapse.
