By DARZKKG (Dr Abdul Rahman Zafrudin @ Ko Ko Gyi)
Why This Matters
Myanmar stands at the edge of a prolonged civil war with no real winner in sight. The suffering of civilians—whether inside the country or in exile—is immense. Both a military victory or revolutionary victory risks unleashing uncontrolled violence, warlordism, and decades of instability.
Thus, a negotiated and inclusive peace, however difficult, remains the only viable long-term solution to prevent Myanmar from becoming another failed state like Syria, Libya, or Afghanistan.
The Strategic Peace Roadmap (2025–2030)
Phase 1: Humanitarian Ceasefire and Confidence Building (2025)
Led by: Malaysia and ASEAN with UN and OIC observers
Supported by: China, US, EU, Japan, India, and neutral peace-building countries (Norway, Switzerland)
Key Elements:
- Immediate ceasefire in agreed “safe zones” for humanitarian corridors.
- ASEAN/UN Humanitarian Monitoring Teams deployed.
- Release of non-combatant political prisoners and civilian detainees.
- NUG, Junta, EROs, religious groups, and minority leaders invited to initial Pre-Talks Roundtable hosted by Malaysia (neutral site).
- No demand for immediate disarmament—just de-escalation.
Phase 2: Federal Dialogue and National Convention 2.0 (2026)
- Inspired by 1947 Panglong Spirit and Federal Democracy principles.
- Equal status to EROs, NUG, and ethnic/religious minorities in drafting.
- Key topics:
- Federal Constitution with true power sharing.
- Religious Freedom Guarantees, anti-discrimination laws.
- Return of IDPs and refugees with citizenship and safety.
- Transitional Justice Mechanism: truth, amnesty, and reconciliation model.
- All parties agree to freeze all military operations during convention period.
Phase 3: Transitional Power-Sharing Government (2027–2029)
- Formation of a National Unity Transitional Government (NUTG):
- Tripartite structure: (1) Civilian politicians (NUG, NLD, independents), (2) Ethnic and religious representatives, (3) Restructured military/Veterans.
- No veto power for military.
- Special advisory seats for international guarantors (ASEAN, UN, China, US).
- Creation of an Independent Commission on:
- Economic reconstruction
- Anti-corruption
- Army reform and civilian control
- Citizenship review (incl. Rohingyas)
Phase 4: Free & Fair Elections with New Constitution (2030)
- Supervised by ASEAN + UN + neutral global observers.
- All eligible ethnic and religious communities included as voters and candidates.
- Post-election: Permanent Civilian Government established under the new Constitution.
Accountability and Justice
- Transitional Amnesty ONLY for those who commit to ceasefire and truth-telling.
- A Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) model, inspired by South Africa and Rwanda, to:
- Document atrocities (incl. Rohingya Genocide, civil war crimes)
- Offer conditional amnesty in exchange for confession
- Recommend reparations and healing processes
Security Sector Reform
- Step-by-step disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR).
- Restructure the military under democratic control.
- Local police forces under ethnic/state governments.
Economic Rehabilitation Plan
- Freeze and review Chinese/Junta-era projects—only those compliant with international and local standards continue.
- Special Reconstruction Fund (US$10 billion goal) led by:
- ASEAN + Japan + US + EU + World Bank + OIC + China
- Return of Myanmar diaspora with incentives to invest.
- Green economy, job creation, vocational training for ex-combatants and youth.
Who Needs to Support This?
| Stakeholder | Interests to Protect & Compromise Needed |
| China | Border stability, BRI projects, anti-US presence. Must accept local autonomy and no base expansion. |
| US & Allies | End war crimes, humanitarian access, democracy. Must accept negotiated transition, not total NUG control. |
| ASEAN | Regional stability, refugee reduction. Must act decisively despite “non-interference” doctrine. |
| Russia | May keep arms trade, but excluded from negotiations. |
| NUG/NLD | Civilian rule, ethnic alliance. Must compromise on military purges and allow shared power in transition. |
| Tatmadaw | Institutional survival. Must accept role reduction, end to impunity, and civilian control in future. |
| ERO/PDF | Autonomy, dignity, protection of territory. Must allow political integration, accept DDR plan. |
| Minority Races/Religious Groups | Citizenship, dignity, protection. Must be given full political and legal rights. |
Conclusion: Is There Light at the End of the Tunnel?
Yes—but only if the guns are laid down, voices are heard, and justice is not sacrificed. Myanmar cannot afford another decade of bloodshed. The people, especially the next generation, deserve a future with dignity, peace, and unity in diversity.
What’s needed now is not only international diplomacy—but moral leadership, courage to forgive, and strength to build a better system where no one is above the law and no group is left behind.
NOTE: This is my proposal to ASEAN, Malaysian Government and MOFA (Ministary of Foreign Affairs) only. Not endorsed by anyone.
And I never ever tried to legalize or legitimized the present sham election of Military Junta in 2025.
My proposal for election is only at Phase 4: Free & Fair Elections with New Constitution (i.e. estimated in the proposal in 2030).
